See here.
The ABA/Law school industry spokesperson Zack said:
"Even in these difficult times law students have not made a mistake in choosing the law as their profession."
Nonsense. Even the ABA's own stats show that there are 1.4 million working age grads of law school. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics federal govt website shows that only about 550,000 people report themselves as being employed as lawyers, and only about 210,000 report themselves as self employed lawyers. That means only about 760,000 people make a living as a lawyer. And some of those 760K people are only in it short term because they are going to either 1) go out of business or 2) their temporary jobs in the legal field will end and some of those will not be able to find other employment in the legal field.
So what is the growth rate of the legal profession and what is the replacement rate for retiring lawyers? That is how many open slots come available in the legal industry for graduating law school grads each year. There are about 45,000 new law school grads each year. That means that new law school grads constitute 5.8 percent of the legal industry --ANNUALLY. Does of the sum of replacement plus growth come anywhere near 45,000 annually?
No, it does not. In fact the BLS website shows that the growth trend for the industry over the last few years is negative. Negative growth. Even if the growth rate were 1 percent, that would only employ about 7600 new lawyers annually. But it is not 1 percent. It is less. In fact, the legal industry is shrinking.
So what about replacement of retiring lawyers? Is there enough there to employ the 45K new grads each year? No. As the EXPOSING THE LAW SCHOOL SCAM blog shows, about 2 to 3 percent of all workers retire each year. If you assume a 40 year career for most people, and 100 percent retirement (everyone retires eventually), then 40 goes into 100 2.5 times. Thus, about 2.5 percent of all lawyers will retire each year.
So what is 2.5 percent of 760,000 people? Well, that would be about 19,000 people. That is how many jobs/slots there are available for the new graduates of law school. Even if you are wildly optimistic and factor in a 0.5 percent growth rate, that is only about 19,000 plus 3,800, which is 22,800 slots available for new law school grads.
And as we know, there are 45000 new law school grads each year. That means that roughly half of all law school grads are out in cold each year. After going into huge debt. And that was using an OPTIMISTIC view of the data. Realistically, less than half of all law school graduates will find work in the "profession."
Mr Zack of the ABA thinks that's just dandy. Mr Zack, does the ABA (and you) take money from parties that profit from the law school scam?
Do you want young people to gamble 100K dollars of debt and 3 years of their lives on a 50 percent chance of failure? Better they should borrow 100,000 dollars and plunk it down on a roulette table in Las Vegas. At least that way they do not waste 3 years of their lives.
So, Mr Law School Industry Spokesman, I think you are wrong. And I think the Justice Dept should investigate the law school industry racket and its propaganda organs, the ABA and the NALP.
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Well said. My only add is its really more than 3 years of their life, remember the LSAT and then the subsequent bar exam, and less not forget all the years spent on savings/delaying of other opportunity costs to attend law school.
ReplyDeletePreach!
ReplyDeleteI just discovered this blog. Much of what you say could also be said about graduate school in any number of fields, including most humanities and social science areas, and for MBAs.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos053.htm
ReplyDeleteUnder Projections Data, BLS notes that, in 2008, there were 759,200 attorneys in the United States - of which roughly 26% were self-employed. The Department prognosticates that there will be 857,700 lawyers in 2018. This means that there will be an additional 98,500 lawyers in the span of ten years. Again, keep in mind the HUGE law classes noted above. It is reasonable to calculate that roughly 450,000 people will receive a JD - from an ABA-accredited law school - between 2008 and 2018.
Simply put, we are producing FAR TOO MANY graduates for the available number of attorney positions. Will enough attorneys leave the field to provide work for most of the JDs who graduate in this time span?!
Keep in mind that foreign lawyers and non-lawyers are now engaging in American legal discovery work. See ABA “Ethics” Opinion 08-451. Also, look at LPOs such as Pangea3, which are running doc review in India.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/05/science/05legal.html
Back on March 5, 2011, The New York Times reported that “armies of expensive lawyers” are being replaced by cheaper software. How will this development affect future attorneys?! The answer is pretty simple and straightforward.
"I just discovered this blog. Much of what you say could also be said about graduate school in any number of fields, including most humanities and social science areas, and for MBAs."
ReplyDeleteThe trick is, you get a JD and nobody wants to hire you because it is a "terminal degree" (and also because people hate lawyers, even new ones that haven't even taken the bar yet.) But yes, you are right; grad school is where the college gets to use students as cheap labor and most MAs or Ph.D.s never get to work as tenured faculty because there aren't enough slots. That said, you can walk away from grad school or the adjunct freeway flying hustle; being a law school grad haunts you FOR LIFE.
I spent 9 years at a big firm that was very old and a congenial place to work for years. Very well known place, the MP at the time is a name you would instantly recognize. It wasn't a bad place to work but I still hated it. I taught myself how to trade the financial markets on the side and finally quit. I lost over 100K through my screwups before things turned around but now I work for myself as a trader.
ReplyDeleteThese days there are really good training programs that can greatly shorten that learning curve. If I were a 1 or 2L now, I'd walk away and spend the 5K it takes to get through a good one. It's hard work but so worth it in the end.
SMB Capital is one. Mark Minervini has one. There are quite a few good ones.
"... Much of what you say could also be said about graduate school in any number of fields, including most humanities and social science areas, and for MBAs."
ReplyDelete[1.] With liberal arts graduate schools, at least it's common knowledge that there isn't any pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Most grad students understand that if they don't get funding (i.e. a fellowship and a TA position), they don't (or at least they shouldn't) go to school. Law students aren't operating under that assumption (yet).
[2.] As much as we moan about law school prospects, there are worse scenarios, such as PhD's working at community colleges as part-time instructors. But, again, the public perception is that academia is not a finacially rewarding profession.
[3.] Finally, I wonder why there isn't a corresponding outrage for MBA's?
Boxer is a dumb braud from Brooklyn College and her husband's an ambulance chaser. Don't hold your breath.
ReplyDeleteThe University of Tulsa is the worst. The school will deliberately flunk out 25% of the 1st year class to boost cash flow. Students (who cannot gain admission to other schools flock to Tulsa) and never leave if they actually graduate. It is a cash flow scam operation.
ReplyDeleteIt's the same in Canada. Although they don't take us for quite as much, it does add up all the same. Our law schools have also gotten into the train as many new lawyers as possible game.
ReplyDelete